Viewing archive of Friday, 29 June 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N17E30) produced an M2/1b at 29/0920Z along with occasional C-class flares. Region 1515 (S17E43) grew significantly and is now considered a Dkc-type region with a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 1515 produced a few C-class flares during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (30 June-02 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (30 June) with a chance for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on days two and three (01-02 July) with a chance for minor storm levels due to CH HSS effects.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jun 117
  Predicted   30 Jun-02 Jul  115/120/125
  90 Day Mean        29 Jun 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jun  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  009/010-015/018-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%40%35%

All times in UTC

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