Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1520 (S17W48) remains the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk, however it has remained rather stable and quiet. Regions 1521 (S21W60) and 1519 (S17W68) have been the most active regions producing low level C-class events. Both regions have shown moderate growth in sunspot area and magnetic complexity. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days (16-18 July).

The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. These elevated levels can be attributed to continuing CME effects. Measurements from the ACE spacecraft showed variable IMF total field strength and occasional negative Bz early in the period. Around 0600Z, total IMF peaked around 28 nT, with the Bz component reaching a maximum deflection of -18 nT. These levels remained almost constant and elevated throughout the remainder of the summary period. Multiple major to severe storm periods at high latitudes with minor to major storm periods at mid latitudes were observed during the period, due to the 16 hours of sustained negative Bz coupled with elevated (500-600 km/s) solar wind speeds.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 July) as CME effects wane. A return to predominantly quiet levels is expected on days two and three (17-18 July).

  Observed       15 Jul 141
  Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul  135/130/120
  90 Day Mean        15 Jul 128

  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  011/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jul  032/049
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  013/018-006/005-005/005