Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 July 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1520 (S17W48) remains the largest and most
magnetically complex region on the disk, however it has remained
rather stable and quiet. Regions 1521 (S21W60) and 1519 (S17W68)
have been the most active regions producing low level C-class
events. Both regions have shown moderate growth in sunspot area and
magnetic complexity. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during
the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(16-18 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for
the past 24 hours. These elevated levels can be attributed to
continuing CME effects. Measurements from the ACE spacecraft showed
variable IMF total field strength and occasional negative Bz early
in the period. Around 0600Z, total IMF peaked around 28 nT, with the
Bz component reaching a maximum deflection of -18 nT. These levels
remained almost constant and elevated throughout the remainder of
the summary period. Multiple major to severe storm periods at high
latitudes with minor to major storm periods at mid latitudes were
observed during the period, due to the 16 hours of sustained
negative Bz coupled with elevated (500-600 km/s) solar wind speeds.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 July) as CME
effects wane. A return to predominantly quiet levels is expected on
days two and three (17-18 July).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 141
Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 135/130/120
90 Day Mean 15 Jul 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 032/049
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 013/018-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 30% | 05% | 05% |
Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 40% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
<< Go to daily overview page