Viewing archive of Friday, 20 July 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk. Region 1523 (S28W74) and Region 1525 (S20E09) are the largest
regions on the disk but both regions remained stable and quiet. New
Region 1526 (S17E63) was numbered earlier today and is currently a
simple beta group. A disappearing filament was observed in the
northwest quadrant of the Sun, however no CMEs were observed in
conjunction with the event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class flares for the next three
days (21-23 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (21 July). Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day two (22 July), as a coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becomes geoeffective. An increase to
quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is
expected on day three (23 July) as effects of the CH HSS continue.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 40% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 092 Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 006/005-008/010-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 30% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 35% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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