Viewing archive of Friday, 27 July 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Sympathetic activity
between Regions 1530 (S19E28) and 1532 (S20E53) produced a M2/1f
x-ray event at 1726Z on 27 July. The event was accompanied by a
Tenflare (340 sfu), type II and IV radio sweeps. The type II was
reported with an estimated speed of 2099 km/s, however a radial
speed estimate of the CME obtained from STEREO B coronagraph was
measured near 500 km/s. Initial analysis suggests that the transient
will not likely have a geoeffective trajectory. New Region 1533
(S28E18) developed today and was numbered. There were some
preliminary observations indicating a new region (not yet numbered)
rotating onto the disk in the southern hemisphere, behind Region
1532.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next 3 days (28-30 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on day 1 (28 July) as the onset of
coronal hole (CH) high speed stream effects are forecasted. The
field should remain mostly unsettled on day 2 (29 July) with
possible nighttime active levels from substorms. Conditions should
recover from unsettled to active levels to mostly quiet on day 3 (30
July) as CH effects wane.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jul 123 Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 125/130/135 90 Day Mean 27 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 008/012-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 45% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 65% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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