Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 August 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 1528 (N17W56), 1532 (S19W14), 1535 (N18E37), 1536 (S22W01), and 1538 (S22E54) all produced low level C-class flares. Region 1536 is the most magnetically complex group on the visible disk with a weak Beta-gamma configuration. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the reporting period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible on day 1 (02 August) due to effects from the 28 July CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (03 August). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (04 August).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Aug 150
  Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug  155/155/150
  90 Day Mean        01 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Aug  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  008/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%05%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm30%20%05%

All times in UTC

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