Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1539 (S22E31) produced a
long duration C3/sf x-ray flare which began at 04/1104Z and ended at
04/1649Z. An associated limb event CME was observed in SOHO LASCO as
well as by STEREO coronagraphs, with an estimated speed of 905 km/s.
ENLIL depicts trajectory of the transient between Earth and STEREO
B, with a glancing blow expected beyond the forecast period. No new
active regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class over the next 3 days
(5-7 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be primarily quiet over the next 3 days (5-7 August).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 139 Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 000/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1643Space Weather Memes 571sun goes blank 75AR13883 2024/11/04 CME 45Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1209
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/13 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 166 -0.4 |
| Last 30 days | 163.2 +18.4 |