Viewing archive of Monday, 27 August 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1558 (N18E78) produced the largest flare of the period, a B9 at 27/0821Z. Three new regions were numbered: Region 1556 (S12W79) an Axx-alpha type group; Region 1557 (N17E38) a Bxo-beta type group; and Region 1558 a Bxo-beta type group. The remaining numbered regions were stable and quiet. Several CMEs were observed however none appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for moderate activity for the next three days (28-30 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active conditions on days 1-2 (28-29 August) due to continued effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. On day 3 (30 August), conditions are expected to return to predominately quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Aug 112
  Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug  120/120/125
  90 Day Mean        27 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Aug  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm25%25%05%

All times in UTC

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