Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 August 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. A region around the east limb produced an M1 flare at 1211Z along with multiple C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours. New Regions 1562 (S16E56) and 1563 (S25E71) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 31 August and 1 September with a chance for minor to major storm levels at high latitudes. Activity is expected to return to mostly quiet levels on 2 September with a slight chance for active to minor storm levels at high latitudes. Increased activity on days 1 and 2 is due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
Class M40%40%40%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Aug 128
  Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep  130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        30 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Aug  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  010/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%05%05%

All times in UTC

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