Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period
was a C5/SN flare at 1810Z from Region 1560 (N03W17). This region
remains the largest and most magnetically complex with a beta-gamma
configuration. Two potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed
with estimated speeds of 570 and 530 km/s, and a Type IV radio sweep
occurred at 0435Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet to unsettled levels. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event, associated with the disappearing
filament on 31 August, began at 01/1335Z, reached a maximum flux of
60 pfu at 02/0850Z, and is currently above threshold at the time of
this report.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to increase to minor storm levels with a chance for major
storm levels on 3 September with the arrival of the 31 August CME,
and high latitudes have a chance of reaching severe storm levels. On
days 2 and 3 (4-5 September), activity is expected to decrease to
mostly unsettled conditions with continuing CME effects. The two
CMEs observed today along with a coronal hole high speed stream are
expected to arrive late on day 3 (5 September).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 75% | 40% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 142 Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 020/030-014/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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