Viewing archive of Monday, 17 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Two low level C-class solar events were observed today from
around the southeast limb, from a yet to be numbered active region.
The remaining 5 sunspot regions, currently on the visible disk, have
remained stable and quiet. Three CMEs were observed in the past 24
hours, however none of them appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next
three days (18-20 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days one and two (18-19
September). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (20
September) as a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream is
forecast to become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 102 Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 105/105/110 90 Day Mean 17 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 006/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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