Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 October 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1584 (S22W01) produced the largest event of the period, a C1/Sf flare at 02/0904Z. A new group, Region 1585 (S16E63) was numbered today as well. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next 3 days (3-5 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (3-5 October).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Oct 118
  Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        02 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  021/036
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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