Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 October 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-flares during the forecast period (05-07
October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet during the forecast period (05-07
October).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 110 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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