Solar activity was at low levels. At 07/2046Z, a C1 x-ray event was observed from an area of enhanced emission beyond the NE limb. A few B-class flares were observed during the past 24 hours from Region 1585 (S21W01). New Region 1586 (S12E66) rotated onto the disk as an H-type spot group. A 30 degree long filament, centered near S65W15, erupted during the period. SDO imagery first observed movement along the filament channel at approximately 06/2000Z with ejecta visible off the SW limb at about 07/0700Z. LASCO C2 imagery observed a partial-halo CME lifting off the SW limb first visible at 07/0812Z. Subsequent WSA-Enlil model output indicated a possible weak, Earth-directed component of this CME. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class activity all three days of the forecast period (08 - 10 October).

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE satellite measurements observed wind speeds varied between about 290 to 350 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 6 nT. Low energy particles, measured at ACE, indicated a steady rise through the period likely associated with the approaching 05 October CME.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels through most of day one (08 October). Late on 08 October, active levels with a chance for minor storm periods are expected due to the arrival of the Earth-directed CME observed on 05 October. On day two (09 October), continued minor storm conditions are expected early in the day, decreasing to mostly quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods as effects from the CME wane. Quiet to unsettled conditions with a chance for isolated active periods are expected on day three (10 October) due to effects from a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream coupled with a possible glancing blow from the 07 October CME.

  Observed       07 Oct 098
  Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct  095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        07 Oct 120

  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  015/018-017/020-011/012