Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1/Sf event observed at 27/1557Z from Region 1618 (N09W81). The region appears to be decaying but it is difficult to determine size and magnetic configuration with its proximity to the west limb. Region 1620 (S12W43) continued to show growth in its intermediate spots and developed magnetically into a beta-gamma-delta configuration. Two CMEs were observed this morning. The first became visible as an EUV wave in SDO/AIA 193 imagery beginning around 27/0245Z near N28E46 and appears to have been associated with a disappearing filament. The second CME appears in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 27/0530Z near N00W27. Further analysis is being conducted on these two events to determine geoeffectiveness.

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, continued to decrease from approximately 500 km/s to 415 km/s as the effects from the 23 November CME subside. Total IMF reached 5.7 nT at 26/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2.8 nT at 27/1722Z.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (28 Nov). Quiet to unsettled conditions with a chance for isolated active periods are expected on day two (29 Nov) due to the anticipated arrival of the 26 November CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (30 Nov) at this time due to coronal hole high speed stream effects, however, the results of the analysis on the events discussed above may change the latter half of this forecast slightly.

  Observed       27 Nov 117
  Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov 115/110/105
  90 Day Mean        27 Nov 123

  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Nov  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  006/005-012/015-007/010