Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 December 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Dec 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 07/2121Z from Region 1621, which departed the west limb late on 6 December. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec) with a chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 351 km/s at 08/1526Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/1525Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/1306Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Dec 101
  Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec 100/105/105
  90 Day Mean        08 Dec 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Dec  002/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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