Viewing archive of Monday, 17 December 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Dec 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 17/0220Z from Region 1629 (N13W88). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec, 20 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 532 km/s at 17/1237Z. Total IMF reached 9.6 nT at 17/0740Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7.4 nT at 17/1102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 155 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Dec) and a return to predominantly quiet levels for days two and three (19 Dec and 20 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Dec 115
  Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec 120/125/125
  90 Day Mean        17 Dec 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Dec  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  012/012-008/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%15%
Major-severe storm20%20%05%

All times in UTC

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