Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 January 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a long-duration C2 event
observed at 16/1923Z from a filament eruption near old Region 1650
(S31W79). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for moderate levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18
Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
467 km/s at 15/2142Z. Total IMF reached 6.4 nT at 16/2053Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4.0 nT at 16/1131Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 934 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels for day 1 (17 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels for days 2 - 3 (Jan 18, Jan 19).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 137 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 010/012-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
Strong far side CME 337Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 135850 mhz F2 51AR 13932 13Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 11
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/23 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 106.6 -45.9 |
| Last 30 days | 116.1 -41.8 |