Viewing archive of Friday, 25 January 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Jan 25 1214 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Jan 2013	103	005
26 Jan 2013	101	007
27 Jan 2013	098	013

Bulletin

The solar activity is very low, there were no C-class flares reported during last 5 days. The C-class flares are still possible but not very probable. A partial halo CME was detected by SOHO/LASCO on January 23. The CME was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at about 14:00 UT, had angular width of about 240 degrees and projected speed around 500 km/s. It was associated with a prominence eruption and EIT wave, situated at that moment on the North-East quadrant of the Sun. It seems that the CME was directed somewhat northward of the Sun-Earth line. Therefore, we expect the arrival of only a CME-driven shock at the Earth, probably late on January 26 or early on January 27. It might result in active geomagnetic conditions. The solar wind speed is currently about 400 km/s and slowly increasing what is probably indication of the arrival of the fast solar wind stream from a low-latitude coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field is fluctuating, with occasional intervals of negative values (up to -5 nT). We expect quiet to possibly active geomagnetic conditions in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 028, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Jan 2013

Wolf number Catania	061
10cm solar flux	103
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	001
Estimated Ap	001
Estimated international sunspot number	039 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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