Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 February 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Feb 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
02/1958Z from Region 1667 (N23E49). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04
Feb, 05 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 529 km/s at
02/1457Z. Total IMF reached 11.5 nT at 02/0147Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8.5 nT at 02/0221Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 108 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days (03 Feb, 04 Feb,
05 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 112 Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 012/015-009/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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