Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 February 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Feb 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 391 km/s at
07/1936Z. Total IMF reached 10.2 nT at 07/0519Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -9.1 nT at 07/0541Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels for the next three days (08 Feb, 09
Feb, 10 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 103 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 105/105/110 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 014/022-011/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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