Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 February 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Feb 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/1550Z from Region 1675 (N12E18). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
403 km/s at 16/2302Z. Total IMF reached 9.5 nT at 16/2101Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7.3 nT at 17/1417Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days (18 Feb, 19 Feb,
20 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 106 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 006/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 006/008-007/008-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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