Viewing archive of Friday, 12 April 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
12/2038Z from Region 1718 (N21W46). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 525 km/s at
12/0311Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/0713Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/2125Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 65 pfu at 11/2120Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 274 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (13 Apr), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (14 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (15
Apr). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (13 Apr)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (14
Apr, 15 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Apr 138 Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 135/130/120 90 Day Mean 12 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 018/026-028/045-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 45% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 35% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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