Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 April 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/0036Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for an M-class flare on all three days (21-23 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft remained around 300km/s. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 20/1925Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-4 nT at 20/1039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (22 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Apr 105 Predicted 21 Apr-23 Apr 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 20 Apr 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 004/005-006/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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