Viewing archive of Monday, 22 April 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Apr 22 1049 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Apr 2013	109	005
23 Apr 2013	109	004
24 Apr 2013	109	020

Bulletin

A recurrent coronal hole will influence geomagnetic conditions from April 24 onwards. In the last rotation, this coronal hole increased the solar wind speed up to 550 km/s and resulted in minor storm conditions (Kp=5). The CACTus CME detection software issued yesterday two automated halo CME alerts but these are not Earth-directed. Flaring conditions. NOAA AR 1726 keeps the potential for major flares although its magnetic complexity has decreased in the past 24 hours: a parasitic patch of opposite polarity has disappeared from the leading sunspot. Still M-class flares are likely. Proton >10 MeV fluxes are enhanced since yesterday 09:54 but not cross event thresholds. A warning conditions for more proton flux enhancements has been issued.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Apr 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	109
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	064 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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