Viewing archive of Monday, 29 April 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
29/2032Z from Region 1730 (S18W20). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May,
02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at
28/2332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1591 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (30 Apr, 02
May) and quiet levels on day two (01 May).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 142 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 008/008-004/005-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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