Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 May 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 May 04 1141 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
04 May 2013	145	014
05 May 2013	142	022
06 May 2013	142	022

Bulletin

In the last 24 hours two M flares were detected by the GOES satellite: a moderate M1.3 flare, in NOAA AR 1731, at 1655 UT (peak time), and a M5.7 flare in NOAA AR 1739, at 1732 UT (peak time). This region should be monitored for further M class flares in the coming days, as it begins its transit on the disk. AR 1731 is still complex enough to produce an isolated (but likely moderate) M flare as well, and we foresee active conditions for the next 48 hours. AR 1734 is likely to produce C flares with a slight chance of an M class event. The M5.7 flare was associated with a wide CME spotted on the East limb (at 1800 UT on LASCO C2), with an estimated speed of at least 600 km/s (CACTUS detection). Another CME took off to the south of AR 1739 at 2200UT. We do not expect these events to be geoeffective. A filament eruption took place near the central meridian (about 15 degree North), on May 4th around 0245 UT but no CME can be linked to this event. We expect geomagnetic activity to reach active conditions by the end of May 4 beginning of May 5 due to a coronal hole and its associated high speed solar wind stream. Active conditions might continue on May 6 due to the arrival of the CME of May 2nd.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 079, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 03 May 2013

Wolf number Catania	093
10cm solar flux	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	066 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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