Viewing archive of Friday, 10 May 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 May 10 1244 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 May 2013	133	006
11 May 2013	133	007
12 May 2013	128	017

Bulletin

Solar activity has been active during the past 24 hours, featuring eleven C flares and one M3.9 flare. The M flare was produced by AR 11744 (which also released the majority of the C flares) and had its peak around 00:57 UT on May 10. More C-level flares are expected within the next 48 hours, with a good chance for an M flare, especially from NOAA AR 11744. A large filament eruption was observed in the southwest by AIA imagery around 17h UT on May 9. A bright associated CME was registered by LASCO C2 and STEREO COR2 A and B around 19h UT. This CME and its shock wave will likely not reach Earth. In the last 24 hours, the IMF has been steady around 4 nT, while solar wind speeds have decreased from about 480 and to 430 km/s. A further decrease is expected, up to May 12, when a weak coronal hole high speed stream may cause solar wind speeds to increase again. Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp = 1) during the past 24 hours. Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected for May 10 to 12, with a chance for active levels (K Dourbes = 4) on May 12, due to a weak coronal hole high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 081, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 09 May 2013

Wolf number Catania	140
10cm solar flux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	077 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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