Viewing archive of Friday, 17 May 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 May 17 1307 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
17 May 2013	149	014
18 May 2013	150	007
19 May 2013	152	013

Bulletin

Two M-class flares in past 24h, both from NOAA AR 1748. The first one occurred on May 16 at 21:53 UT, with intensity M1.3. The second flare was an M3.2 and peaked at 08:57 UT on May 17. This AR has still potential for producing X class flares. It maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, even though some fragmentation is seen in the trailing region and there are some indications that polarities are separating within the delta spot penumbra. The M3.2 flare of today was related to radio bursts and a CME. SWAP detected clear dimmings and an EIT wave around NOAA AR1748. There are no LACO data available yet, but a CME is indeed seen in STEREO COR2 data, it can be Earth directed. The speed in COR2-B is calculated to be 1300 km/s, making a possible arrival to the Earth on May 19 around noon. Protons levels (10MeV) are still above threshold, stable around 3 protons/cm2-s-sr. Geomagnetic conditions have been unsettled to active, due to long lasting periods of slow solar wind with sustained mild negative Bz (around -5nT). These are not related to the arrival of the CME of May 15, which is still not visible in ACE data, and may still arrive later today and produce storm levels (estimated max K = 6). As a reminder, this series of CMEs related to AR 1748 had a source region within 30 degrees of the solar limb, which reduces their possibility of arrival to the Earth to around 30%.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 124, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 16 May 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	145
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	024
Estimated Ap	023
Estimated international sunspot number	142 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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