Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 May 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
22/1332Z from Region 1745 (N13W80). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
500 km/s at 22/0442Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/2005Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/2357Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 279 pfu at
22/2035Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 22/1830Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 722 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (23 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (24 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (25 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and
two (23 May, 24 May) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (25
May).
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 70% |
| PCAF | RED | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 133 Predicted 23 May-25 May 125/125/130 90 Day Mean 22 May 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 012/012-007/015-012/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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