Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 June 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Jun,
03 Jun, 04 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 739 km/s at 01/1114Z. Total IMF reached 24 nT at 01/0758Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 01/0041Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17174
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (03 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (04
Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 106 Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 033/050 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 018/020-010/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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