Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 June 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Jun 08 1247 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Jun 2013	109	013
09 Jun 2013	108	011
10 Jun 2013	106	008

Bulletin

Solar activity is low, with only three C-class flares and one M-class flare detected in last 24 hours. The M5.9 flare peaking at 22:49 UT on June 07 originated from the Catania sunspot group 96 (NOAA AR 1765) situated at that moment at the west solar limb, and was associated with a CME. From the currently available data it seems that the bulk of the CME mass was directed mostly southward of the Sun-Earth line and it is therefore not probable that the CME will arrive at the Earth. Fast growing Catania sunspot group 96 (NOAA AR 1765) which currently has beta-gamma configurations of its photospheric magnetic field, has a significant potential to produce a C-class flares, and possibly also M-class flares. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT, and the solar wind speed is currently 450 km/s. The arrival of the fast flow from the small equatorial coronal hole is expected today without significant geomagnetic impact. A CME-driven shock wave associated with the M1.3 flare on June 05, might be expected on June 09 producing at most unsettled geomagnetic conditions. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions during following 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 017, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Jun 2013

Wolf number Catania	066
10cm solar flux	110
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	025
Estimated Ap	033
Estimated international sunspot number	032 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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