Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 June 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jun,
13 Jun, 14 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
432 km/s at 11/0408Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/1638Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/1125Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 943 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14
Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 090 Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 11 Jun 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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