Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 June 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/0400Z from Region 1774 (S18E58). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one and two (16 Jun, 17 Jun) and expected to be very low with a chance
for a C-class flares on day three (18 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 478 km/s at
15/2057Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/0626Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 885 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (16 Jun, 18 Jun) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (17 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 111 Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 005/005-006/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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