Viewing archive of Friday, 21 June 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
21/0314Z from Region 1777 (S15E56). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun,
24 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
580 km/s at 21/1945Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 21/1707Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/1944Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
21/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 122 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (23 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (24 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 133 Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 21 Jun 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 016/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 013/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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