Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 June 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (26 Jun) and likely to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (27 Jun) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (28 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
590 km/s at 25/0812Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/2130Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/2147Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
24/2300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 17149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun) and unsettled to
active levels with a chance for minor storm levels on days two and three
(27 Jun, 28 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| Class M | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 109 Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 105/100/095 90 Day Mean 25 Jun 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 014/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 006/008-011/016-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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