Viewing archive of Friday, 28 June 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Jun 28 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Jun 2013	098	026
29 Jun 2013	098	019
30 Jun 2013	098	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been eruptive during the past 24 hours, featuring three C flares, from NOAA AR 11777 and 11778. The brightest flare was a C7.3 flare released by NOAA AR 11778 with peak time at 03:37 UT on June 28. More C flares are possible within the next 48 hours, with a chance for an M flare. NOAA AR 11777 released two CMEs (observed by LASCO C2 at 20:37 on June 27 and 02:00 on June 28). The first CME is not expected to be geo- effective, while there is a slight chance for a glancing blow from the second CME on July 1st. ACE detected a shock in the solar wind at 13:53 UT on June 27, probably due to some unidentified CME. The solar wind speed jumped from about 380 km/s to around 460 km/s, and has currently decreased again to 365 km/s. The IMF jumped from 3 to 8 nT, has subsequently further risen to 12 nT near 2h UT on June 28, and has since been gradually decreasing, with current values around 9 nT. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels (K Dourbes between 1 and 4) during the past 24 hours. Quiet to active conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected for June 28, with a chance for a minor geomagnetic storm (K Dourbes = 5). On June 29, quiet to active levels (K Dourbes = 4) with minor storm periods are possible as a consequence of the expected arrival at Earth of a new coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are likely on June 30.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 050, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Jun 2013

Wolf number Catania	058
10cm solar flux	100
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	043 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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