Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 July 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Jul 17 1303 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Jul 2013	114	007
18 Jul 2013	113	019
19 Jul 2013	113	012

Bulletin

Solar activity is still low, with only few C-class flare reported during last 24 hours. The Catania sunspot group 30 (NOAA AR 1791) and NOAA AR 1793 still have potential to produce C-class, and possibly M-class flares. The CACTUS software reported the CME, first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 03:48 UT on July 16, with the speed of about 400 km/s and width of 120 degrees. From the currently available data it seems that the bulk of the CME mass is directed northward of the Sun-Earth line. The arrival of the CME at the Earth is not very probable, but we do expect arrival of the CME driven shock wave. The Earth is inside a slow solar wind with the speed of 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT. The arrival of the fast flow from the low-latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere which reached the central meridian on July 16 is expected on July 18. The CME driven shock wave associated with the CME on July 16, might arrive at the Earth on July 20. We expect minor to major geomagnetic disturbance due to arrival of the fast flow in the following 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 054, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Jul 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	050 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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