Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 August 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one and two (25 Aug, 26 Aug) and expected to be very low with a chance
for a C-class flares on day three (27 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 532 km/s at
24/0729Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/0116Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/1225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3575 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 117 Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 24 Aug 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 014/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 019/020-011/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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