Viewing archive of Friday, 30 August 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Aug 30 1222 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Aug 2013	110	018
31 Aug 2013	111	016
01 Sep 2013	112	017

Bulletin

Solar activity was eruptive featuring 1 C-class flare (C8.3) originating from AR NOAA 11836. A partial halo CME was associated with this flare as seen in LASCO C2 on August 30th around 02:48 UT. It has an angular width of around 150 degrees and an estimated speed of about 1000 km/s. With this speed, the estimated time of arrival at Earth is on August 31th around 21:00. A second partial halo CME was detected by LASCO C2 on August 29th around 06:00 UT. Most material of this CME is southbound, but a shockwave might arrive on Earth. With an estimated speed of around 430 km/s this shockwave is expected to arrive on September 2d around 20:00 UT. The current solar wind speed is around 380 km/s but rising. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz component is turbulent and between -5 nT and -10 nT. Phi is going from 270-360 degrees to 90-180 degrees indicating the arrival of the coronal hole and a current sheet crossing. Geomagnetic conditions where quiet in the past 24 hours, but are expected to reach active (K=4) to minor storm (K=5) levels in the next few hours. During the night of August 31st and September 1st, (with the arrival of the CME as seen by LASCO C2 on August 30th 02:48 UT), geomagnetic conditions can reach active (K=4) to minor storm (K=5) levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 047, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Aug 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	109
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	035 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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