Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 October 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct,
04 Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 664 km/s at 02/0241Z. Total IMF reached 32 nT at 02/0424Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -29 nT at 02/0425Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 85
pfu at 01/2205Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 362 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (04 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (05
Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (03 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 108 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 024/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 016/020-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 20% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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