Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 October 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Oct 17 1259 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Oct 2013	128	007
18 Oct 2013	125	007
19 Oct 2013	124	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low, there is potential for moderate conditions in NOAA ARs 1861 and 1865. They have been both producing C class flares, together with 1870 and 1867. AR 1865 produced the strongest flare in the past 24h: a C8.9 with peak at 14:32 UT on October 16. There was a slow faint full halo CME, seen first at 15:48 UT (first seen in LASCO C2). It was related with a C1.8 flare from NOAA AR 1870. The bulk of the material was directed towards the west, with a speed of 300 km/s. An impact with the Earth is possible early on October 21, although geomagnetic conditions are not expected to be greatly affected by this weak event. The solar wind speed at the L1 point is 450 km/s with magnetic fields around 4 nT. Geomagnetic conditions have ranged from quiet to unsettled, quiet conditions are expected for next 48h.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 102, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Oct 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	095 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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