Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 November 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Nov 05 1252 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Nov 2013	148	011
06 Nov 2013	153	009
07 Nov 2013	155	005

Bulletin

NOAA AR 1890 (no Catania number yet) produced today an M2.5 flare peaking at 08:18 UT, and a C8.0 flare peaking at 11:58 UT. We expect the flaring activity at the M-level, with a small chance for an X-class flare. A CME was associated with the M2.5 flare, first appearing in the LASCO C2 field of view at 08:24 UT. The data currently available do not allow yet to measure the full angular width of the CME. However, STEREO and LASCO data clearly show that the bulk of the material is ejected southward of the ecliptic plane, so we do not expect the arrival of the corresponding interplanetary disturbance at the Earth. The proton flux at energies above 10 MeV measured by GOES exhibited a small increase around 08:40 UT today, probably associated with the M2.5 flare and corresponding CME. The proton flux remains below the threshold, but we issue a warning condition for a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 360 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 4 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 089, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Nov 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	147
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	091 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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