Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 November 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Nov 10 1309 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Nov 2013	150	013
11 Nov 2013	152	003
12 Nov 2013	156	005

Bulletin

Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890) produced an X1.1 flare peaking at 05:14 UT today. The flare was accompanied by coronal dimmings and a post- eruption arcade observed by SDO/AIA, indicating the eruption of a CME. Regarding space coronagraphs, only the data from COR2 onboard STEREO A is available at the moment of writing, and it confirms that the CME did take place. However, the COR2 data does not allow us to evaluate the CME propagation direction with a sufficient accuracy. It is clear that the bulk of the CME material propagates southward of the ecliptic plane, but the position of the source active region close to the solar central meridian indicates that the CME might arrive at the Earth. We will update the information on the CME direction when the SOHO/LASCO data becomes available. Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890) keeps the beta-gamma- delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, although the delta- spot continues to weaken. We expect flaring activity at the M-level in this group, with an X-class flare possible but unlikely. The position of the group in the western solar hemisphere leads us to maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The proton flux at energies above 10 MeV is currently above the background (due to earlier eastern hemisphere events), but it did not react to the above-mentioned CME/flare event and currently remains below the proton event threshold. The Earth is currently inside a fast (around 580 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude. The fast flow probably originats from a small equatorial coronal hole that passed the solar central meridian on November 7. Yesterday's interval of elevated IMF magnitude (that led to active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions) probably represents a small-scale transient at the interplanetary sector boundary. Due to average values of the IMF magnitude, we expect quiet to unsettled (K < 4) geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 077, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Nov 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	018
Estimated Ap	020
Estimated international sunspot number	076 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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