Viewing archive of Friday, 15 November 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/0229Z from Region 1899 (N06E35). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 412 km/s at
15/1513Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 15/1917Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 790 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one through three (16-18
Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 178 Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 009/012-009/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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