Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 November 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Nov 17 1257 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Nov 2013	172	010
18 Nov 2013	168	007
19 Nov 2013	164	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours, with a M1.0 flare spotted in NOAA AR 1900 on Nov. 17, 0510 UT peak time. A C4.9 flare occurred in NOAA AR 1893, on Nov. 17, 0801 UT (peak time). It was accompanied by a CME observed by the STEREO COR2 coronagraphs. Based on these observations (LASCO data are not yet available for this event) it looks like the bulk of the CME will miss the Earth. A C8.6 flare occurred on the East limb (N15) on Nov. 17, 0621 UT (peak time), but further information is needed to assess the risk of future flares. We expect active conditions (M flares possible) to prevail for the next 48 hours, with a higher risk for NOAA ARs 1900, 1897, and 1893. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet for the next 48 hours. Current ACE observations show that the Earth is still within the moderately fast solar wind stream linked to a coronal hole, but the interplanetary magnetic field is now back to very quiet and steady levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 124, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Nov 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	175
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	123 - Based on 08 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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