Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 November 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
19/1026Z from Region 1893 (S13W77). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (20 Nov) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 432 km/s at
19/1729Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 19/1825Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22
Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on
day one (20 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 30% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 153 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 150/140/140 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
AR13883 2024/11/04 CME 45sun goes blank 72Space Weather Memes 566Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1209AR13889 143
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/13 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 166 -0.4 |
| Last 30 days | 163.2 +18.4 |