Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 December 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 01/1121Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 585 km/s at 01/0255Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/0040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 30/2116Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (04 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Dec 131
  Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec 130/135/135
  90 Day Mean        01 Dec 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Dec  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  009/015-008/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm25%30%05%

All times in UTC

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