Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 December 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Dec 24 1258 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Dec 2013	130	001
25 Dec 2013	132	017
26 Dec 2013	134	019

Bulletin

There were five C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours, the large majority being released by NOAA AR 11928. The brightest one was a C8.4 flare from NOAA AR 11936 peaking at 17:28 UT on December 23. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is high (around 80%) and for M flares around 40%, mainly from NOAA AR 11928 and 11936. There is a slight chance for an X flare. In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed decreased from around 310 km/s to around 280 km/s and the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field varied between 1.5 and 4 nT, as observed by ACE. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) and are expected to remain so on December 24 and in the first half of December 25. In the second half of December 25, geomagnetic conditions may become active (K Dourbes = 4) due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream with estimated velocity between 450 and 500 km/s. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 5) are expected on December 26, as the coronal hole high speed stream effects continue.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 076, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	075 - Based on 09 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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