Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 December 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Dec 26 1348 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Dec 2013	125	008
27 Dec 2013	128	013
28 Dec 2013	128	004

Bulletin

There were six C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours, released by NOAA AR 11928, 11936, 11934, and 11931. The brightest one was a C2.2 flare from AR 11931 peaking at 07:02 UT on December 26. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is high (around 80%) and for M flares around 30%. The > 10 MeV proton flux as observed by GOES13 started rising around 9h UT on December 26, right after the long duration C1.3 flare produced by AR 11936. It is currently still rising, but it is not expected to exceed the threshold level of 10 pfu. During the past 24 hours, solar wind speed as observed by ACE has varied between about 260 and 300 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has decreased from about 11 to about 3 nT. Geomagnetic activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp between 1 and 3). Due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream, quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 5) are expected in the second half of December 26 and on December 27. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on December 28.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	123
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	065 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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