Viewing archive of Monday, 30 December 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Dec 30 1146 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Dec 2013	138	007
31 Dec 2013	136	007
01 Jan 2014	134	020

Bulletin

Several C-class flares occurred since our last bulletin, all originating in NOAA AR 11936. The largest one was a C5.4 flare peaking at 19:30 UT on December 29. We expect more C-class flares in the coming 24h. There is also a good chance (around 50%) for an M-class flare. Due to its location close to the west limb and the fact that NOAA AR 11934 is still showing flux emergence and associated activity, we issue a warning condition for a proton event in case a strong flare occurs in this active region. CACTUS reported the detection of a partial halo CME at 07:12 UT on December 29. This CME originated near NOAA AR 11938. Coronagraph images from LASCO/C2 and STEREO-B/COR2 show that this is a very slow event (around 180 km/s) which is mostly southward directed. We do not expect geomagnetic effects from this eruption. The leading edge of a recurrent coronal hole has crossed the central meridian. This coronal hole has grown compared to the previous rotation. At that time, the associated fast wind stream caused a geomagnetic storm (Kp up to 6, K_Dourbes up to 5). The solar wind speed has decreased further to 300 km/s and the total strength of the magnetic field lies around 6 nT. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet. We expect them to remain so until late on January 1, when we foresee the arrival of a coronal hole wind stream. Minor storm conditions (K_Dourbes up to 5) are expected.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 068, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	087 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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